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Japan’s Cabinet Office projects real GDP growth of 0.9% for the 2026 financial year (April 2026 to March 2027). Preliminary data for July 2026 indicates that Japan’s current cycle of economic growth may have become its longest period of economic expansion since the end of World War II, the current period beginning in May 2020 following COVID-19 pandemic lows.

Government projections for real GDP growth for the current financial year have been revised downward, with private consumption and corporate investment weaker than expected. Continued increases in real wages provide some cause for optimism.

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1.25% on 18 September. Inflation remains above Japan’s 2% target rate, at 2.5%. Some economic commentators assess that the Bank of Japan may increase the speed of future rate rises, from approximately every six months to quarterly. Further interest rate increases should help address the weak yen.

For the year ending June 2026 New Zealand total exports to Japan grew by 6.4% to NZD 4.85bn. The value of aluminium and meat exports increased significantly due to rising commodity prices. Most other exports saw limited increases or declines. Imports from Japan increased by 20.4% to NZD 5.12bn, largely due to the increase in mineral fuel (mainly diesel) imports.

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Iron Duke are a government relations and public policy advisory firm based in Wellington, New Zealand. We work at the interface of public policy and business strategy. We help our clients understand policy and regulation, how it affects them and what they can do to influence it. We are for New Zealand. We are committed to creating better outcomes so that our country thrives. Phil O’Reilly ONZM is Managing Director.

As New Zealand’s largest and longest-operating wood pellet manufacturer, Nature’s Flame delivers world-class renewable energy backed by 20 years of expertise. From our modern Taupō plant—which features a scalable site footprint and secure wood fibre supply ready for expansion—we transform sustainable radiata pine residues into premium, carbon-neutral fuel, with DINplus and FSC certifications guarantee consistent quality and long-term sustainable supply. Driven by an ambition to grow, expanding our exports to Japan plays a critical role in our future. We look forward to building stronger partnerships within the NZ-Japan business community to scale our reliable green energy exports.

Tourism NZ recently launched their latest campaign in Japan - with the help of our ambassador in market, actress Kana Kurashina.

Together they are inviting Japanese visitors to reconnect with nature, experience exceptional food, and return home feeling refreshed and restored after a trip to New Zealand.

The activity is expected to support TNZ’s overall goal of 3.9 million visitor arrivals with an additional 8,496 incremental arrivals, including PR and media impact, Air New Zealand activity and trade joint ventures.

Japan’s Cabinet Office projects real GDP growth of 0.9% for the 2026 financial year (April 2026 to March 2027). Preliminary data for July 2026 indicates that Japan’s current cycle of economic growth may have become its longest period of economic expansion since the end of World War II, the current period beginning in May 2020 following COVID-19 pandemic lows.

Read the full report here.